Underdog Betting Strategy – How to Bet Against the Favorites?

Underdog betting is the status given to weaker teams in a contest, namely teams that are credited with a second chance. In football games, the underdogs are a great option to bet on, especially when playing against Champions League winners. The fixed odds of their victories can be unjustifiably high and usually profitable.

If you back a favorite, you have a better chance to win but the odds might not be worthwhile. In the long run, if you keep betting on the lowest odds that don’t cover the risks, you are certain to lose. Underdogs are not necessarily bad teams, but they don’t look as good on paper as their opponents. Players tend to go with the better team and bookmakers exploit this tendency.

You can find outstanding odds and great underdog betting opportunities with the right approach. Handicaps can help level the playing field and find odds above even value, while the risks of losing are less than 50%. The way to make money betting on football is to only bet on odds that have a positive profit/risk margin.

Betting on the underdog can be a professional endeavor that has nothing to do with gambling. Research, experience, and stats analysis can help you find value in the betting markets. The profitability line between low vs high odds is thin and it comes down to the ability to calculate implied probability.

The easiest example to understand this concept is to use even odds:

• If an NBA underdog gets odds of 3.00, the implied probability is calculated using this formula 1/3 x 100 = 33%.
• After analysis, you might consider that the team has a chance of winning 40% of the games against its opponent.
• This means that these money line odds exceed the risks, so it’s a good idea to place the bet.

Online betting sites publish the odds for upcoming events weeks and sometimes months in advance. This allows you to make an educated decision whether you bet on the favorites or underdog teams. To have a better chance than your peers, you should consider these facts before placing a bet:

Underdog betting is possible in all major sports because no matter how good, there is always a better team or athlete. The margins are slim and the differences blurred, but in most cases, there is a clear favorite. Perfectly balanced teams are a rarity, but these coin-flip events are the exception rather than the rule. Before you place a single bet, it is worth looking at these three underdog examples:

Football

• Manchester : 2.40 (favorite)
• Tottenham: 2.80 (underdog)

Tottenham is the underdog because if you bet $100 on them you can win $180, as opposed to $140 on United. The draw is the least likely outcome, with odds of 3.80.

Basketball

• Boston Celtics: 1.50 (favorites)
• New York Knicks: 2.80 (underdog)

You can find slightly better odds at the best sports betting exchanges, but the underdog status is obvious.

Tennis

• Medvedev: 1.20 (favorite)
• Monfils: 4.60 (underdog).

The Russian has an implied probability of winning 83%, hence the low odds.  A wager on the veteran Frenchman would produce profits of 360% of the bet, which is huge.

The beauty of underdog sports betting is that you are not limited to a single market. You can take the outright winner or leverage the higher odds with a no-clean sheet bet. While there are many options, these three types of underdog betting stand out from the crowd.

This can be a challenging market, so understanding what is underdog betting is insufficient. You need to find value in the odds constantly and only bet on the lesser team when it is worth it. Basic strategies like the ones below can help you tilt the balance in your favor and maximize your long-term gains:

Underdog betting is called so for a reason. You bet on the worst team and in most cases this will lead to losses. It is a difficult way to handle your business, regardless of the sports to bet on. To survive and profit, you must avoid the common mistakes committed by inexperienced punters:

• Betting too much on underdogs and losing large amounts on teams that don’t deliver;
• Chasing losses and trying to recuperate the amounts quickly by increasing the stakes;
• Choosing underdogs not based on research but on greed to win more through long odds;
• Adding too many selections on parlay or system bets to produce higher odds.

There is no silver bullet in gambling and this applies to betting on the underdogs also. There are advantages and shortcomings when betting on lesser teams. That’s why you must make an educated decision by comparing pros and cons:

If backing favorites would work, bookmakers would go bankrupt. You can’t make money in the long run if you only bet on the teams credited with the first chance. Underdog wagers present unique opportunities when you can find the right team. Research is needed but it pays off and the satisfaction of winning such a bet is immense.

All sports and betting markets are suitable for betting on the underdog. You can bet on the outright winner, handicaps or simply place a clean sheet bet. Teams credited with a second chance frequently cause major upsets. The only challenge is to predict the upset win and take advantage of it. The odds are always stacked against you, due to the house edge, so why not enjoy better values?