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Odds Shortening Guide | Shortening Odds vs Odds Drifting Explained

Odds shortening is a powerful tool used by bookmakers to minimize their risks. When a lot of people bet larger amounts of money on a team, athlete, or horse, sports betting sites reduce the odds. The differences are small, but increase if the favorite continues to gain traction.

In this betting guide we discuss how and when the odds get smaller. This knowledge helps take advantage of drifting odds, which are the polar opposite. When the odds shrink for the favorite, they always increase for the underdog, which provides lucrative betting opportunities.

The summary of the article

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What does odds shortening mean ?

An adequate odds shortening definition would be to say that there has been a reduction in the odds available.

  • To shorten the odds means that they become less profitable to players, as the chance of something happening has increased.
  • By contrast, if a bookie lengthens the odds from their starting price, they believe there is now less chance of an event occurring.
  • In the battle of low odds vs. high odds, it is high odds that turn the biggest profit. Low odds are more likely to see you win, though with smaller prizes.
  • Horse racing odds shortening is the most likely occurrence. It is rare to see other sports shorten their odds as frequently as horse racing.

How does odds shortening work?

Now that you have had odds shortening explained, it is worth looking at why shortening the odds happens in the first place. Keep in mind that there are many sports in which we encounter the odds shortening and this can happen both before as during the event. There are several reasons why bookmakers may choose to shorten the odds on something.

  1. A reduction of odds could occur because the bookie has come across some new information that changes the probability of something happening, making an outcome more likely.
  2. This can also happen when a lot of players stake money on the same bet. The bookmaker may feel as though the players know or have seen something that they have not.

Both are valid reasons to see odds suddenly shorten.

Of course, there are other betting terms alongside odds shortening that you will want to get to grips with if you want to become a seasoned sports bettor. We have got guides that discuss the concepts behind “accept all odds movement” and the best staking plan for low odds, as well as strategies for closing odds and more. However, as long as you know the basics behind odds shortening, you’ll be off to a great start.

Odds drifting vs shortening: what is the difference?

Odds drifting vs. shortening are two sides of the same coin:

  • When the odds are shortening, you are dealing with dropping odds
  • However, on occasion, the odds could drift. Odds drifting is another way of saying lengthening.

For instance:

  • If a horse is a favourite to win, he will naturally have lower odds, also called short odds.
  • However, if the jockey develops a cold on the day of the race, bettors might start to fancy other horses.
  • To compensate for that, the odds on the original favourite will drift (get longer).
  • You must keep up with current events to see these enhanced odds as they happen, so let us look at that next.

How shortening odds can alter your returns

Betting sites will always offer all that include the house edge, to guarantee their profits. They don’t stop here and do everything to reduce their liabilities. Odds shortening is a standard process that applies to all sports every single day. As a bettor, your goal is to maximize the returns on investment. This can only be accomplished if you constantly bet on odds where the benefits outshine the risks.

The betting odds are published way before the game begins and start moving shortly after. If you fail to bet at the highest odds available and wager after the shortening happens, you lose value. Each time you place a bet online on undervalued markets, you lose money even if you win the selection. That’s why it is critical to anticipate the odds movement and act accordingly.

The good news is that once you understand what odds shortening is, you can take advantage. By betting on the underdogs as soon as the odds are published, you mitigate the risks. At the same time, you can take advantage of the opposite reaction which is drifting odds. Sportsbooks and e-sport bookmakers are compelled to increase the underdog odds while shortening the favorites.

Other articles you might want to read:

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Spotting horses with shortening odds

How do you spot odds shortening or drifting? When betting it is important to learn how to spot horses with shortening odds is essential. Some players spend hours watching the markets in the run-up to an event. Any horse with tumbling odds is known as a steamer, but this could mean one of two things:

  1. On the one hand, it could be a horse that the bookie has new information about, hence the change in odds.
  2. It could also be a horse that the public fancies, and the surplus of bets has had to force the bookie to slash the odds to avoid having to pay out sizable sums.
  3. It could also be that the true probability of the horse winning has not changed at all. Instead, groups of people (usually on social media) release blogs and gossip to attract attention to the horse, usually to deviate the public away from their own bet. In these cases consider fading the public opinion.

Your best way to find steamers and identify which horses with shortening odds are worth having a bet on is to study the markets, read what is being said, and check out the advice of tipsters. However, we have a few more tips you might like, and we will look at those next.

Examples of odds shortening

The best way to understand the short odds meaning is through examples.

Example 1

Consider the Derby of London, where the hosts Tottenham get odds of 3.00 and visiting Arsenal are priced at 2.50. These are the fixed odds betting options available two weeks before the match.

As kickoff draws near, Arsenal in-form striker Kai Havertz is doubtful, as he mends an injury. Punters start betting larger amounts on Tottenham, so bookmakers reduce the odds to 2.75. In this shortening odds example, the game turns into a perfectly balanced match, as Arsenal’s odds drift to 2.70. One of the classic sports betting mistakes would be to settle for the lower odds for Tottenham.

Odds shortening happens even more often in tennis, as you can see from the example below.

Example 2

At the 2024 US Open, Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz played in the final. The Italian was the favorite, and the odds started at 1.40, while the American was priced at 2.60.

Bettors placed large wagers on Sinner, driven by his solid head-to-head record and Fritz’s exhausting semifinal. The American played five sets and was on the verge of elimination, so fatigue and stress were factored in. As a result, bookies reduced Sinner’s odds to 1.30, and Taylor’s odds drifted to 3.40.

Top tips for shortening odds that you should know about

As promised, here are our top gambling tips for shortening odds betting. They include:

Tip

  • Visit a tipster. They will usually have a good idea of where things stand, such as the best odds margins. They will also provide their best bet, referred to as a NAP. This would be the short answer to what does NAP mean in betting.
  • Watch out for non-runners. These can play havoc. A horse might appear to have shortened odds, but that may be because it is about to be withdrawn.
  • Always check out the bookmakers with the best odds guaranteed.
  • While it helps to know how to read soccer odds, learn about horse racing odds in particular, as this will help you identify top horses to back.
  • Make full use of welcome bonuses and look for betting sites with cash out options to boost your returns.

The pros and cons of odds shortening

There are pros and cons to every aspect of gambling, and odds shortening is no exception. Our list includes:

PROS

  • You may be more likely to win with shortened odds
  • Most bookmakers keep you informed of odds shortening
  • It also applies to  live betting

CONS

  • Your returns will be lower with shortened odds
  • Shortened odds may just be bluster

Learn how to read betting odds like a pro

Odds shortening is a menace that plagues bettors who wager on favorites all the time. However, you can take advantage of this practice employed by even the best sports betting exchanges. Calculate the odds for upcoming games and compare them to what sportsbooks offer, to see if there’s any value.

If you intend to bet on the favorites, do it early, as this is where most odds are shortened. If you fancy the underdogs, it is worth waiting a bit longer to see if the odds drift. In conjunction with proper betting money management, you can extract maximum value from the odds available. You also give bookmakers a taste of their own medicine, which is always satisfying.

FAQs: Your questions on odds shortening answered

If you still have questions about odds shortening, let us see if we can help you with this brief FAQ guide.

If the likelihood of an event occurring increased, the odds available on that bet will shorten. This is known as odds shortening, and it means that while you may be more likely to win, your return will not be worth as much as it was initially.

Not normally. Fixed odds are usually secure from future fluctuations. There are exceptions, but these are few.

There are plenty of tools out there on the internet that consider odds shortening, and these can be used to find the best deals.

No. Before you do that, you need to know the reason why a horse has become a steamer. If it is because it is more likely to win a race, you may wish to have a crack at it. If it is bluster, hearsay, or pure unfounded gossip, you should avoid this.

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