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The Hardest Sport to Bet On | Most Challenging Sport to Wager On

The hardest sport to bet on is the one you don’t know enough. Bookmakers have extensive portfolios, and embarking on several sports betting challenges at a time can be tempting. This betting guide singles out the Esports category as the toughest wagering option today. We highlight the obstacles bettors must overcome to succeed when betting on video games.

Core concepts such as responsible sports gambling, bankroll management, and staking apply to all forms of betting. Esports are the newest and most popular betting options but the most difficult for casual bettors. Their fast-paced nature, ever-changing odds, and technical difficulties in placing live bets make esports the ultimate challenge.

Summary of the article

Top 10 Sportsbooks in 21 November 2024 – Updated List

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Hardest sport to bet on explained

To identify the most challenging sport to bet on, we must consider key aspects. Popularity is one of them because there is less information online about niche sports. Betting profitability depends on the quality and quantity of information available. You will find fewer live sports betting tips if you bet on something that only a fraction of online punters fancy.

Another characteristic of difficult sports to bet on is all its quality. Bookmakers offer close to even odds on the most popular sports, such as football. The house edge is smaller when betting on derbies and matches involving high-profile teams. Once you have the betting odds explained, it is obvious why winning is more difficult when the house edge is higher. Finding value in the sports betting odds is complicated when bookmakers can afford to shorten odds at will.

Toughest sport to bet on: Which sport is the hardest to predict?

The hardest sports to cap belong, in fact, to the nonsporting variety. Esports took the online gambling industry by storm and are featured at the best sports betting sites. They have their own section, but all the standard sports betting concepts apply. Games are fast and unpredictable and conclude sooner than most sports, which leads to greater variance.

Bookies offer lower odds to a target audience of young people familiar with the games. They can afford to shrink odds as leverage against risks because this is a niche betting market. Esports are, by nature, dynamic betting options, but odds don’t move fast enough to mirror live changes. Instead, they are frozen in play, so bettors are deprived of many winning opportunities.

Why are Esports the Hardest Sport to Predict?

Not all video games make it to the esports section, only the most competitive ones. The games are fast, with many pace changes, making them unpredictable sports betting options. Even League of Legends, the most popular game in the sports industry, has less than 100 pro gamers. This is a game with 5 players and nearly 150 champions to choose from. With so many possible combinations, bettors constantly try to figure out how to manage betting risk.

Esports are played mainly in regions with small divisions of 10 teams or less. A limited number of games are played throughout the year, so form is more important than head-to-head results. Sharp sports betting depends on access to relevant information regarding track records, which is lacking. Unlike betting on golf, football, or other sports, teams change their rosters frequently and rarely use the same players in back-to-back seasons, rendering the head-to-head records useless.

The House Edge is Huge in Esports

Most bettors who choose Esports know a great deal about the games. There are more experts in League of Legends betting than in any other classic sport. Bookmakers try to protect themselves against the threat of sharp betting and increase the house edge. This leads to the industry’s hardest sports odds, making it hard to create effective wagering strategies.

Sports betting sites frequently offer odds below 1.90 on coin flip events. You need to predict above 60% of events with a 50% chance to happen just to break even. Due to the tiny odds, there are better betting strategies than focusing on the favorites. There is usually no value, so bettors are inclined to look for underdog betting tips. This is where the opportunities lie, but only if you are an expert at the game and have flawless bankroll management and good underdog betting strategies.

Live Betting is Immensely Frustrating

Esports are some of the most challenging sports to wager on due to their volatile nature. Teams can take the lead several times during the game, and minor events can alter the outcome. Expert punters who know the game inside out can take advantage of these changes with in-play betting. The problem is that many pregame markets are no longer available after the match begins.

For example, in League of Legends, you can no longer bet on popular events such as First Blood, Dragon, or First Tower. These become unavailable even during champion selection, as savvy punters can use the information. Esports betting sites cannot adjust the odds accurately, so they prefer to block the market altogether. This makes even the best live betting strategies useless.

Make the Hardest Sports Betting Profitable

Where other people see obstacles, you should see opportunities. Esports are the most challenging sports to wager on, but they’re not impossible to beat. In fact, you can extract maximum value from these games once you become an expert. Most people will give up, but it can be done with thorough research, commitment, and the best strategies for sports betting video games.

These are the top six reasons you should embark on this toughest sports gambling quest:

Bookmakers have a little edge

Esports are still a new market, and sportsbooks don’t have a clear advantage. They choose to block the odds, which suggests they can’t figure out the correct value quickly. This sports betting difficulty will be an advantage if you become knowledgeable enough. You will be able to craft your own successful sports betting strategy.

Play the video game first

Unlike other sports where research and betting tips for beginners help, hands-on experience is invaluable. There are so many subtle changes in a game that only a gamer can understand their meaning quickly. For live sports betting, this kind of knowledge is priceless. It will also help you with betting market analysis and evaluating the odds.

Bet against the favorites

Betting against the public is the best thing you can do in any sport. Esports are some of the most difficult sports to bet on, so many punters are tempted to bet on the big names. The skill gap isn’t so great, so betting on underdogs can be profitable if you choose the right teams. Thorough sports betting analysis is needed, so do proper research.

Dare to bet live

Bookmakers will try to make things difficult for you when betting live. Keep going and watch the games through live streams and use the live sportsbook features. Due to the high sports betting unpredictability, you will have many opportunities for arbitrage during the same game. This is one way to perform quality risk management in sports betting.

Bet on in-game events

You don’t always have to predict winners in esports such as League of Legends. Some of the best strategies for sports betting focus on in-game events such as First Blood, Tower, or Dragon. Such stats are available for pregame betting and can be used efficiently. These are low-margin sports betting markets and have the best fixed odds.

Stick straight betting

Due to the low odds, it can be tempting to place the accumulator best. Only combine up to two events on the same betting slip and ideally stick to single bets. Having parlay betting explained highlights the danger of parlays when betting variance is so high. Place many individual bets for frequent wins and exercise bankroll management.

Comparing Betting Difficulties: Esports vs. Football with Examples

Esports example – League of Legends Worlds Championship Quarterfinals

  • We bet $100 on Bilibili Gaming to score First Blood in Map 1 vs Hanwha Life.
  • We chose Stake as a bookmaker and got identical odds of 1.85 on both teams for this market.
  • There are just two possible outcomes, so we can either make a profit of $85 or lose.

Reasons why it is so hard to bet on esports, even when choosing a pregame bet on high-profile events:

Tip

  1. House edge is huge, as you lose $15 for every two such bets if you win 50% of your bets.
  2. The First Blood bet outcome depends on starting heroes, but luck has an outsized influence.
  3. Pregame stages such as “pick and ban” are unpredictable and have a big impact.
  4. When champion selection begins, odds are locked, so you can’t use any of the information.

Why is it still worth betting on First Blood, and how can you offset the house edge:

Tip

  1. Bilibili has a lower First Blood percentage than Hanwha at Worlds but a much higher rate in the regular season and playoffs.
  2. Bilibili is the main favorite to win the LoL Worlds Championship; hence, they are more confident in the game’s early minutes.
  3. The lane-swap strategy introduced worldwide in 2024 has been perfected by Chinese teams. It has a major impact on First Blood percentages, and Bilibili is the top team in China’s LPL.

Football example – Champions League Group Stage

  • We bet $100 on Juventus to defeat Stuttgart and choose Stake as a bookmaker.
  • The odds are 1.85 for Juventus to win and 1.98 for the X2 Double Chance market.
  • We profit $85 if Juventus wins and lose if Stuttgart wins or draws the game.

Why is football the easiest sport to bet on, based on this example:

Tip

  1. The house edge is less than 3.8%, which is among the lowest you get in sports
  2. All bookmakers cover this game so that you can find odds above 1.90 on Juventus.
  3. You can bet until the very moment the match starts and throughout the game.
  4. The starting lineups are known in advance, and much information is available for research.
  5. Live streams are available, and there is minimal delay when betting in-play.
  6. Based on the live action, you have 90 minutes to consider arbitrage and hedge strategies.

Easiest sport to bet on vs. Hardest sport to bet on

Esports is the hardest sport to predict, while football is widely regarded as the easiest sport to bet on. Choosing a straightforward path and betting on football is fine if you are a beginner. Videogame fans appreciate the challenge of esports betting and will find football less appealing. In any case, it is important to understand what makes one sport so difficult and the other so easy.

Hardest sport to bet on - Esports

PROS

  • Niche betting markets where the knowledge gap between bookies and expert punters is narrow.
  • Excellent opportunities for arbitrage during the same game when betting live.
  • Underdogs produce upsets more often, and the odds of surprising results are consistent.

CONS

  • Tricky sports for betting due to its particularities and scarcity of online information.
  • The house edge is crushing on mainstream markets, and the odds are low overall.
  • Live betting is limited and frustrating due to slow refreshing and blocked odds.

Easiest sport to bet on - Football

PROS

  • Hundreds of games every day, with an outstanding selection of betting markets pregame and live.
  • A lot of games that take place everyday, where you can chose to bet on the favorites or the underdogs.
  • Excellent live betting options, with streams, fast refreshing odds, and little delay when placing bets.

CONS

  • Bookmakers have a clear advantage over bettors, as this is a fine-tuned market they master.
  • The odds of the favorites are low, and it isn't easy to find value when betting on bookmakers.
  • Arbitrage opportunities are nearly nonexistent due to the similar odds offered by sportsbooks.

Embrace the hardest sports betting markets

Betting on sports was never supposed to be easy. This is a highly competitive industry where bookmakers have many advantages. They set the odds, change them at will, and inject the house edge to make winning in the long run difficult. The tougher sports gambling challenge is constantly finding value in the available odds and betting accordingly.

The hardest sports to bet on represent a serious challenge for bettors and an opportunity. You compete against a smaller field, and betting against the public is more profitable if you are an expert. If sports betting was easy, bookmakers would go bankrupt, and this activity would cease. Accept the challenge and better yourself because the hardest sports can be the most profitable.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Baseball is the hardest traditional sport to bet on, but esports are the most difficult overall.

Football is widely regarded as the easiest to bet on due to its popularity, odds, and access to data.

The most profitable sport is the one that makes money for you, and that varies with the bettor. However, many gamblers agree that soccer is the most profitable sport.

Basketball is one of the most predictable sport because it has many points and fewer surprises. Besides, the odds are attractive.

Golf is the least predictable sport. Check its variance, huge fields within majors and the number of talented players.

Always bet on the sport you know the best because this is how you make the smartest decisions.

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