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Dropping Odds – Win More with Lower Odds

Dropping odds indicate that the opening odds are shrinking, so potential winnings would be lower. This betting guide explains why odds drop, how to use their movement and the importance of comparing opening and current odds.

In theory, the probability of the outcome increases, which makes the betting odds change attractive to risk-averse punters. Expert bettors can predict and speculate on these late betting market movements. Value betting strategies can be crafted, and the odds fluctuation can be used in your favor.

Summary of the article

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What are dropping odds?

Dropping odds refers to the circumstances where sports betting odds decrease. Online betting sites will publish the odds days and sometimes weeks in advance. These are called opening odds and are subject to change based on many factors. Everything from weather, player injuries, team news, and professional bettor influence can produce betting odds shifts for various reasons. They are still fixed odds since potential profits are locked when you place the bet.

Factors influencing dropping odds

  1. Team news: injured or suspended players can lead to shortening odds.
  2. Weather conditions: outdoor sports are influenced by whether which can trigger low odds.
  3. Public betting: live betting sites reduce the risks by shrinking the odds if many people bet on one team. Public sentiment can cause the football odds to drop, especially in high-profile football matches.
  4. Expert predictions: Professionals who give betting advice can influence odds movements. If their opinions are expressed publicly, the impact can be significant.

Opening odds vs. Dropping odds

The odds comparison is usually made with the opening odds. They reflect bookmakers’ initial assessment of the chances of the outcome occurring.

As circumstances change, adjustments are made to the betting markets, and the pre-match betting odds also change. Odds drop because regular and crypto bookmakers consider the team to have a better chance of winning. Dropping odds are below opening ones, but their current value fluctuates over time.

To better understand what are dropping odds, we should use an example. Barcelona is the favorite to defeat Valencia at home and get a starting odds of 1.80. When the visitors lose their goalkeeper to injury, the odds drop for Barcelona at 1.40. The point spread betting odds also change, so you get lower odds on the favorites to cover the spread.

How to use dropping odds to your advantage

When learning how to bet on dropping odds, a few strategies are worth considering, especially when tracking odds from top bookmakers. These are proven systems that work for most types of sports betting. They are suitable for beginners, veteran punters, and work pregame and live sports betting.

  • Heavy Boat Theory: A ship gets loaded too much and starts sinking. The Heavy Boat theory is built on this. If a million people believe that Team A will win a match and place a bet on this possibility, the odds for Team A will drop. This does not mean that a million people are right, and you can make money if you place a bet online against dropping odds.
  • Accept All Odds Movement Option: When placing a bet, you are asked if you want to select an option called accept all odds movement. If you tick, you will be affected by odd changes after placing a bet. You might get slightly lower odds, but you can exploit lucrative opportunities. You should still be aware of the short delay in accepting odds.
  • Identify Value Bets: Dropping odds creates arbitrage betting opportunities by wagering on the other team. As the odds on the favorite drop, you might find enough value in the underdog to cover the spread. You get a safety net at the same odds if you bet on team news.
  • Avoid Trap Bets: Sometimes dropping odds are deceiving and don’t reflect better chances of winning. Don’t pile up dropping odds on parlay betting slips; try to figure out what causes the odds to move. If you don’t have a clear answer, it is better to stay away.

Causes of dropping odds

Many factors influence market odds movement, some causing the odds to drop while others produce drifting odds. Understanding how bookies set odds can help you anticipate the price movement in betting. You could use match odds updates and craft a lucrative dropping odds strategy for every sport.

  • Injuries & Team News – last-minute changes significantly impact odds movements. For the underdog, the betting odds drop immediately if key players are injured or suspended. If the favorite is affected, you can benefit from higher odds compared to opening values.
  • Market Movements – to beat the bookies, you need to pay attention to significant movements in the market. Bookmakers will reduce the odds if many people bet on a team or athlete. That’s why many sharp betting strategies focus on public sentiment and bet against it.
  • Sharp Bettors – they are expert punters respected for their expertise. Casual punters take their advice seriously and use it to create football strategies. When such players suggest an outcome or bet larger amounts on an event, dropping odds are soon to follow.
  • Weather Conditions – weather changes will impact sports played outdoors, especially over/under betting. Rain, snow, and wind can decrease the number of goals scored and lead to odds dropping. These changes are more difficult for beginners to evaluate.
  • Unexpected Events – just as the name suggests, they occur when least expected and trigger surprising bookmaker odds changes. A manager’s sacking, travel issues, and late arrivals can influence moneyline betting odds.

Dropping odds vs. rising odds

Dropping and rising odds are betting terms that reflect a single bookmaker’s action. They are influenced by the perceived likelihood of an event outcome and going in opposite directions. There is a clear link between them, and when the opening odds decrease for one team, they automatically rise for the other. Understanding this key link helps you find value bets in sports betting.

For instance, in the Europa League, odds can fluctuate significantly based on team performance and injuries.

If a team plays at home and the opening odds are 1.50, while the visitors get 6.00, the hosts are favorites. When key players for the visiting team get injured days before kickoff, ample swings can be expected in odds value. Dropping odds as low as 1.20 can be expected for the home team by the time the match begins. On the other hand, visitors will be blessed with rising odds as high as 14.00.

One of the common betting mistakes is for punters to bet larger amounts on the dropping odds. A better way to tackle such changes is to pursue an Asian handicap in the house. If you trust the defensive abilities of the visiting team, you can bet against the hosts, covering a generous spread. It is also worth waiting for the live odds and bet in-play after the match has started.

Other articles you might want to read:

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Dropping odds as an indication of fixed matches

Further Information

We have mentioned above that the dropping odds situation arises from all kinds of real-life developments and can influence even betting exchanges to some extent. These include fixed matches. If a bookmaker gets a tip on a fixed match or even a fixed horse race, he will naturally make a change in the odds he offers. This change will usually take place by decreasing them.

For example, if the odds of 3.00 are offered for Team A losing the match, but the odds suddenly drop to 1.00, this may be due to a fixed match because the bookmaker knows that Team A will win. However, there are two points to be considered here:

  • Fixed matches are rare situations encountered in real life. Odd changes don’t always mean there is fraud, like shaving points for example, because there are many other reasons for dropping odds.
  • You should be suspicious of fixed matches only if there is a dramatic change in odds. Otherwise, a decrease (or increase) means that an odd adjustment is being made as usual.

Drop rates according to bet types

TYPE OF THE BET

AVERAGE DROP (%)

WIN RATE (%)

RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)

Home Team Wins
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-19.98
WIN RATE (%)
43.27
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.20
Away Team Wins
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-20.78
WIN RATE (%)
29.64
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.13
Draw
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-17.93
WIN RATE (%)
23.49
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.01
Under 2.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-16.66
WIN RATE (%)
52.18
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
+0.22
Over 2.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-16.45
WIN RATE (%)
54.55
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.19
Under 1.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-17.90
WIN RATE (%)
29.35
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-2.14
Over 1.5 Goals
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-15.28
WIN RATE (%)
80.28
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
+0.58
Home Team Handicap
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-18.75
WIN RATE (%)
54.51
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.02
Away Team Handicap
AVERAGE DROP (%)
-18.82
WIN RATE (%)
55.48
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-3.01

Average drop ranges

RANGE OF DROP (%)

AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)

RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)

Between 0 / -5
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
49.82
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-7.92
Between -5 / -10
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.20
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-7.18
Between -10 / -15
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.02
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-5.44
Between -15 / -20
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
43.02
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-5.45
Between -20 / -25
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.63
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-4.69
Between -25 / -30
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
41.67
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-1.42
-30 and more
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
40.20
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-3.92

Drop rates according to match starting times

RANGE OF THE TIME (minutes)

AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)

RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)

15 and less
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.91
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-0.65
15 - 30
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.15
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-3.60
30 - 45
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.75
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-5.93
45 - 60
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.30
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.79
60 - 120
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
45.96
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.55
120 - 240
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
44.83
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-6.83
240 - 480
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.86
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-9.21
480 - 720
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
41.52
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.21
720 - 1440
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
42.74
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.93
1440 - 2880
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
41.12
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-7.76
More than 2880
AVERAGE WINNING RATE (%)
38.12
RETURN OF INVESTMENT (%)
-8.91

Pros and cons of dropping odds strategy in betting

PROS

  • It can give you an idea of what the probability of a particular outcome is
  • It is possible to make a profit by exploiting odds differences
  • It is a simple strategy to use

CONS

  • Some bettors may find odds changes too volatile
  • You have to wait for the right moment to make a profit

Dropping odds – A unique opportunity in sports betting

Football is one of the best sports to bet on, dropping odds if you are a beginner. You can take advantage of the shifting dynamics and capitalize on useful information. The markets inevitably adjust to change, but they depend on betting volume, and punters have a window of opportunity.

Timing is everything when cashing in on dropping odds, and decisions must be made on a case-by-case basis. Sometimes, it is worth betting larger amounts on shrinking odds if the team is highly likely to win. On other occasions, this signals a leap of faith with the underdog to defend the spread. Keep an open mind and use the dropping odds as an instrument to find value in every match.

Frequently Asked Questions about dropping odds strategy:

Dropping odds represent a significant decrease in the betting odds for a particular outcome, often indicating a shift in market perception.

No betting strategy will always make you win, and this includes the dropping odds strategy. Don't see this system as a guaranteed way to win.

The higher the odds, the less likely that outcome will occur. So if you win, your payout will be big, but this is unlikely to happen. So yes, you can still win, but your chances are low.

Dropping odds may signal value, especially if you bet before the drop. However, once odds drop, the value may diminish as they reflect the new market consensus.

Dropping odds mean the perceived probability of an event increases, while rising odds indicate the opposite, less confidence in that outcome.

In some cases, dropping odds may hint at insider information, as sharp bettors or syndicates place heavy bets based on privileged insights.

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