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Closing Odds – Bet on the Final Countdown

Closing odds are the final odds offered by bookmakers before the match starts. They are published seconds before kickoff, providing players the final opportunity to bet pregame. This betting guide explains how closing betting odds work and how to make the most of them every time you bet.

Sports closing odds have resulted from betting line movement since the opening odds were published. Bookmakers continuously adjust their odds leading up to the event based on new information and market reactions. They are influenced by many factors, including sharp money, changes in team rosters, and even weather. They all matter if you want to make money while betting.

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What are closing odds?

This betting term refers to the last-minute betting odds published by sports books before an event starts. They can be close to the opening odds if nothing relevant has happened between the time they were posted and kickoff. Closing line odds present the latest balance of power between competing teams or athletes. Like all sportsbook odds, they contain all the available data and include the house edge.

Closing odds vs. Opening odds

  • Opening odds are the initial odds set by bookmakers when the betting market opens. They include all the information available then and usually differ from the closing line value (clv). This initial analysis focuses on historical data, head-to-head results, and expected betting patterns.
  •  Closing odds are more accurate because they factor in the most recent information. They reflect real-time adjustments, such as last-minute changes, the latest team news, and weather changes. Some of the best sports betting exchanges also use them to mitigate the risks when larger sums are being wagered on one team.

How do closing odds work?

Opening odds rarely hold in place, and a glance at odds history highlights the impact of the latest news. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that closing odds are more accurate because they incorporate all available information. Dropping odds indicate that the team is likelier to win while drifting odds suggest an unlikely outcome. Bookmakers also resort to shortening the odds when a lot of sharp money is wagered on one team. The goal is to reduce the risks and profit regardless of the outcome.

Bookmakers start with opening odds, but as bets are placed, they adjust the odds to balance their potential payouts. Both are fixed odds, so your potential winnings are calculated by multiplying the stake with the odds. The betting odds at closing are the closest you get to making an accurate pregame assessment. The difference between closing odds vs opening odds reflects changing circumstances.

Closing betting odds example

We can use an example to better understand how closing odds are calculated and reflect changing circumstances. Understanding the expected value can help bettors identify profitable opportunities when betting on closing odds.

For a Premier League match, could offer odds of 1.90 on Arsenal to beat Chelsea. These are the opening odds, and they use complex algorithms to analyze factors such as injury reports, team form, and expert predictions.

As time passes, the betting trends before the odds close suggest a preference for Chelsea to cause an upset. The moneyline odds on Arsenal increase to 2.10, and odds volatility also impacts the point spread betting markets. News of Arsenal’s goalkeeper being doubtful ahead of the match pushes the sportsbook betting limits closing even further. When the game starts, both Arsenal and Chelsea get odds of 2.50, while a draw is priced at 3.00.

How to bet on closing odds – step by step

Betting on the closing lines in sports can be profitable with proper betting advice. These final betting odds are the most accurate prediction of the game’s outcome. You can take advantage of the latest information and place a bet precisely at the odds closing time in a few easy steps.

Step 1
Check out the opening odds and understand the baseline probabilities for the match.
Step 2
Track the odds movement and only place a bet online if you can cash in on high odds.
Step 3
Analyze the latest information and key factors influencing the final game odds.
Step 4
Pay attention to public betting trends, emphasizing sharp bettors and closing lines.
Step 5
Bet as close to the event as possible to beat the bookies by cashing in on the best odds.
Step 6
Perform an odds comparison with opening odds to get the predictive value of closing odds.

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Factors that influence closing odds

You are ready for late betting action once you understand how bookies set odds. More than a dozen factors influence the accuracy of the closing odds. These are the top seven things to consider, with the greatest impact on closing money lines and closing point spreads:

  • Betting volumes – the amounts wagered by punters determine bookmakers to adjust the odds to reflect shifting public sentiment.
  • Breaking news – the latest information can trigger low odds on teams benefiting from changing circumstances. This is particularly impactful when betting favorites.
  • Weather conditions – unexpected rain, snow, or gales of wind can influence the odds. They usually affect the live betting but have a smaller impact pregame.
  • Key player injuries – when important players suffer injuries before the game, favorite and underdog betting odds shift. The impact is greater when goalkeepers and strikers are involved.
  • Expert predictions – analysis and predictions made by savvy punters and used in football strategies influence the closing odds on various betting markets.
  • Change of venues – the impact of closing odds on betting strategies is greater when teams change venues unexpectedly. This is more impactful for teams with strong home pitch records.
  • Strategic considerations – changes in the starting lineup can influence the public’s perception regarding over/under betting and impact the closing odds.

Why closing odds are important in a betting strategy

Closing odds are usually the most accurate predictors of game outcomes, no matter which sports you decide to bet on. They include all the available news and imperceptible things, such as public sentiment. Bettors use them with the greatest efficiency when they compare them against opening odds. The best results require constant observation to determine the factors driving the odds up or down.

There is always a degree of uncertainty before the game begins. That’s why live betting strategies are available to offset any unforeseen circumstances. Closing odds remain the most reliable gauge of the true probabilities and frequently reflect the collective wisdom of sports books and punters. They work for all types of sports betting and go beyond initial data and assumptions.

It pays off to open a betting account with several sportsbooks. This allows you to utilize odds movement and lock in on top value when available. It pays off to learn how to find a bookmaker that publishes the odds early to expand the window of opportunity. As odds drift, differences can be substantial, opening the door to hedge strategies and arbitrage.

Tips and tricks for beating closing odds

As soon as you learn how to place a bet online, you should try to master the art of using closing odds to your advantage. These are a few things to consider to succeed where others fail and win as much as possible from each match without taking additional risks.

Tip

  • Bet on the favorites early and late on underdogs – this is the most valuable tip for beating closing odds and it applies to all the sports out there. Simply bet on the favorites as soon as the opening odds are up. It is usually the underdogs that get the bigger closing odds, but there can be exceptions, so chase odds movements every step of the way.
  • Follow the most popular teams – the widest odds movements and fluctuations are almost always affecting the best teams in the world. Casual punters will always prefer to bet on the biggest names. That’s why the variations are the widest here.
  • Open multiple sports accountscrypto bookmakers have different betting terms and conditions than the regular ones but they will all adjust their funds based on how punters wager. If you want to make the most of the closing odds strategy, open accounts with several operators, so you always cash in on the biggest betting odds in the market.

Efficient market theory in sports betting

Sports betting isn’t an exact science, whether you are betting for fun or profit, but there is an economic theory that also tends to apply to online sports betting. The efficient market theory states that in the long run, the actual prices will reflect the real worth of an underlying asset. When it comes to sports, the theory claims that the closing odds are the ones that better reflect the difference between the teams involved.

Identifying bets with positive expected value can lead to long-term profitability. By analyzing odds and probabilities, you can ensure that your bets have a higher likelihood of winning than the implied odds suggest.

This theory is only partially true because what happens is that the closing odds reflect the market sentiment. They are the reflection of how people feel about a certain team or athlete and how much they choose them to prevail. While you can’t affect the odds movements, you can take advantage of these changes to bet on the highest odds available.

Pros and Cons of betting on closing odds

PROS

  • You maximize profits by betting on top odds
  • Get a better sense of how punters are betting
  • Have more time to gather information about the game

CONS

  • You can miss out on better opportunities if the odds drop

Closing odds – your winning edge before kickoff

Closing odds represent the culmination of every insight, update, and market move leading to kickoff. They provide accurate information for straight, system, and parlay betting. Compare them with opening odds and take advantage of sudden balance changes.

Don’t make the classic betting mistake of accepting all odds movement and seeking value in every betting market. Bet on the favorite early if you expect the odds to drop or wait until the very moment to lock in the maximum closing odds on underdogs. Stay in control and take charge of your sports betting quest.

Frequently Asked Questions about closing odds:

Closing odds refer to the final betting odds offered by bookmakers right before an event begins.

Opening odds are set when the market opens, while closing odds are the last odds before the event begins, often reflecting changes due to market movements, injuries, or public betting.

Even though they don't guarantee results, closing odds are considered the most accurate indicators of probabilities due to the amount of information factored in.

Closing odds change due to factors like team news, injuries, weather conditions, or shifts in betting patterns.

Closing odds may be similar across various bookmakers, but there can still be slight variations due to different market responses.

CLV is the difference between the odds at which a bettor places a wager and the closing odds, and it's used to measure whether a bet was placed at a good value.