Asian handicap arbitrage – Guide to Asian handicap arbitrage betting in 2024

In order to explain this complex topic, we need to start from the beginning. So let’s talk about Asian handicap bets and arbitrage betting first. Please note that we will give brief information here – in order to learn more, we recommend reading our Asian handicap betting and arbitrage betting guide.

Each match has three outcomes: win, draw, or lose. Sports bookmakers offer different odds for each of these outcomes. However, odds are not the same in every bookmaker; there is a slight difference between them. Using this difference, even when mobile betting, it is possible to secure a profit by placing opposite bets for different outcomes. Take a look at the table below:

Let’s explain this table in detail:

• For the outcome of Team A winning, bookmaker A offers 2.20 odds. The probability of this outcome is 45.45%. How did we find this figure? Simply by dividing 100 by the offered odds (100 / 2.20 = 45.45)
• For the outcome of Team A losing, bookmaker B offers 2.00 odds. The probability here is 50.00% (100 / 2.00 = 50.00).
• When we add these probabilities, the result is 95.45% (45.45 + 50.00)

If the result is below 100, there is an arbitrage opportunity here, even when live betting. So if we place two different bets on both outcomes (win and lose), we can guarantee a payout regardless of the match result. In this example, we will place both a back (win) and a lay (lose) bet for Team A.

• If you bet 200 EUR on Bookmaker A for Team A to win, the payout will be 440 EUR. This means that the bookmaker will refund your initial bet (200 EUR) and also pay 220 EUR. Your net profit is 220 EUR.
• If you bet 220 EUR in Bookmaker B for Team A to lose, the payout will be 440 EUR. This means that the bookmaker returns your initial bet (220 EUR) and also pays 220 EUR. Your net profit is 220 EUR.
• In total, you invested 420 EUR (200 + 220). One of these bets will pay you 440 EUR: You made a 20 EUR profit.

In other words, you are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of the match result an regardless of the payment method you choose. Basically, you are trying to even the payouts for all outcomes. This is very similar to matched betting and dutching, so to learn more, make sure to check out our guides and also our list of matched betting offers too. We have also prepared detailed guides about unmatched bets and partially matched bets.

Let’s explain how Asian handicap arbitrage bets work by giving a simple example. Basically, your goal is to still equalize the payout for different outcomes.

The fact that the bet type is Asian handicap does not change the basic arbitrage principle: You are still trying to secure a profit. For example:

There can be only one winner of this match, and we will place a bet for both possibilities (same happens for e-sports betting). To place a bet for the USA, we will use Bookmaker A because it offers higher odds. For the same reason, we will use Bookmaker B to place a bet in favor of Europe.

• If we place 1.000 EUR at Bookmaker A and win, the payout will be 2.100 EUR. The net profit is 1.100 EUR.
• If we place 1.088 EUR at Bookmaker B and win, the payout will be 2.099,84 EUR. The net profit is 1.011 EUR.
• So, no matter which team wins, we will guarantee a 2.100 EUR payout.
• We invested 2.088 EUR in total. This equals a net 12 EUR profit.

Of course, in order to win these bets, Asian handicap rules will apply, so:

• USA (Asian handicap +1) must win the match by 2 points at least.
• Europe (Asian handicap 0.25) must win the match (or the result must be a draw).

In other words, there are more variations you need to think about – if you are not sure that the USA can win the match by at least 2 points, for example, you should not place this bet. Because if the USA wins the match by only 1 point, you will get a refund on your initial bet, regardless of the currency you used, which will completely eliminate your profit margin.

The example we gave above is sufficient to give a basic idea of ​​how Asian handicap arbitrage betting works. However, let’s give another example so that you can understand the subject better and this time, let’s make a more complex choice. It is possible to play Asian handicap and European handicap bets simultaneously with arbitrage techniques. This is called a “3-way handicap” and using it, you can increase your profit margin even further.

In the example below, we will place two Asian handicap (AH) and one European handicap (EH) bets. Thus, it will be possible to cover the draw outcome too. In this example, we will use the Betfair exchange for all these bets, but you can get the same results by using three different bookmakers.

• This match is between Team A and Team B.
• 82 odds with a -0.25 handicap is offered for the “Team A wins” outcome (AH 1).
• 25 odds with +1.00 handicap is offered for the draw outcome (EH).
• 35 odds with a -0.50 handicap is offered for the “Team B wins” outcome (AH 2).

Regardless of the outcome of the match, we can guarantee a payout. For this:

• We place a bet of 100 EUR for AH 1. If this outcome happens, we will have a net profit of 11.82 EUR.
• We place a bet of 58.66 EUR on EH. If this outcome happens, we will have a net profit of 11.83 EUR.
• We place a bet of 11.49 EUR on AH 2. If this outcome happens, we will have a net profit of 11.81 EUR.

The reason we included EH in the Asian handicap arbitrage bet is to include the draw outcome. Normally, our bet would be refunded on the draw result. Whereas in this example, we are guaranteed to make a profit regardless of the outcome of the match, even if it is a draw.

Asian handicap arbitrage betting can be profitable and guarantee a payout whether the match ends with a win or lose.

You are betting on the odds difference, not the outcome of the match. That’s the beauty of Asian handicap arbitrage. You should try it today by creating an account at one of our recommended bookmakers and learn more about this arbitrage opportunity available in other sports, like tennis arbitrage betting. Good luck!